There is some interesting discussion happening today regarding netbook sales, namely that new devices may be negatively impacting sales and growth.
Paul Thurrott has done a nice job of separating hype from reality. He references IDC’s forecast that 45.6 million mininotebooks (aka netbooks) will be sold in 2011 and 60.3 million units in 2013.
We spend a lot of time checking out the new PCs in all form factors, and it is no wonder that people are buying lots of netbooks from our partners. Check out the ASUS Eee PC 1008P Karim Rashid Collection netbook, the HP Mini 210 Vivienne Tam Edition, and the Sony VAIO W, which my colleague Ben Rudolph recently posted about. Ben also highlighted HP’s recent announcement of new consumer PCs which include updates to their Mini line up of netbooks. Ben tells me he’ll be posting about several other netbooks in the coming weeks.
Netbooks are still cheep ass products. They are slow, have crappy screens and use striped down versions of Windows. a SMART computer user will get a REAL machine
Get a Netbook+ ION (or ION2) and ENJOY!!
The real problem is that MS is always 2 steps behind with everything. GMail and GDocs finally got MS to move to Office Live and a more robust mail system. The iPhone finally forced MS to move with the Win 7 phone. The iPad is pushing MS to a more iPad-like tablet. MS is reacting rather than innovating, or least staying par with Google and Apple. I can tell you this, if MS wants to have successful tablet they should use something very similar to the new Xbox Live Dashboard. It would be very successful. In fact, why not just base the tablet on Xbox Live? Yes, really. Call it Windows Live Tablet. Integrate Xbox Live, Zune Marketplace, offer the same apps that will be on the Windows 7 phone and you have the ingredients for success. Just don't wait a year to do it.
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Interesting trend, but not unexpected during a recession that sales would slow.
Fortunes article was clearly wrong, anyone who has used an iPad will know that its not a replacement PC or Mac for that matter. Athough the iPad will hurt netbook sales, it is perhaps more correct to say that iPad sales will not significantly affect netbook sales, what hurts netbook sales is mobile internet connected devices in general, cell phones, mp3 players, internet enabled tvs,consoles, anything that can connect to the internet or even just a few internet services will hurt netbook sales. I mean if all you wanted a netbook for was to watch Netflix and now your console does that you may not need to buy a netbook.
On a side note
The other thing that hurts netbooks is that many of them come with the most basic version of Windows 7 and have limited ram.
Microsoft should encourage growth in the netbook market by encouraging minimum specs as oppossed to maximum specs for installing Windows. That way you could push the specs up and really get ahead of the curve. Force HDMI ports and decent graphics cards into netbooks with power saving modes and make them the best Windows PC that can be attached to a TV, am I alone in wishing Microsoft would set higher hardware standards for netbooks.
Well to me it seems silly to have have Apple eating any market share using cheap hardware which is what the iPad and iPod and iPhone are, cheap to make...they do sell for a pretty penny though. For those who think that the hardware in these things arent cheap then tell me why it takes so darn long to sync the things, its the cheap flash memory.
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Noticed a minor problem with Windows 7 touch interface - during windows screen refresh. There seems to be a latency where in the windows 7 screen does not refresh fast enough for objects drawn with transparent forms. For objects drawn with opaque or translucent forms the screen refresh has no problems. Is this a bug within the windows 7 touch screen I/F or can this be fixed using an update from microsoft.
To give an example - download "freeapps for windows" from - "www.eyepuzzles.net". Instantiate the "JMini" application. Try one of the "draw ops" from the pull down menu with "transparent form" and then "translucent or opaque form". You should notice the screen refresh difference. It seems with transparent form the windows 7 screen refresh lags behind compared to the translucent or opaque forms.
"45.6 million mininotebooks (aka netbooks) will be sold in 2011 and 60.3 million units in 2013. "
I can definitely see this happening especially because:
1) The prices are dropping significantly and will continue to
2) Processors are becoming smaller and faster
3) These are easy to travel with! Whether you are carpooling in the morning or catching the red eye, its perfect!
Awesome work Ben. I am impressed!
The ASUS Eee PC looks sweet! Beautiful design and the battery life rocks! I'm going to pick one up this weekend.
Netbooks will replace Notebooks altogether as CPU's get smaller. Look for concept Laptops like the one on my website.
Honestly, I'm very disappointed in Microsoft for not being on top of the game when it comes to the tablet form. Sure, you probably can still show sales figures against that device which should not be named. But, as a consumer, I feel let down by not having that type of a device from the vendor that I was backing to deliver it.
Heck, some 2 years ago, I bought a HP TX1000 tablet hoping to use it read books, surf the web, while holding it in the comfortable slate form. That's all I needed it to do. For the heavier use, I always had a larger laptop with me. But, the TX was really bad choice.
1) it was an awefully defective product: www.deadhp.org
2) it was too heavy and too hot to hold on to for comfortable reading/browsing.
#2 is likely still the case with most tablets that run Windows. So, in reality, there's no alternative to THAT device. Netbooks are really pointless devices. The Kindles, the Nooks, should never had been invented. It is just sad that MS didn't step up to the plate before Apple did.